On the relation between public debt and economic growth: an empirical investigation

Authors

  • Bettina Fincke Bielefeld University
  • Alfred Greiner Bielefeld University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.4.4.2015.137-150

Abstract

In this paper we empirically study the relation between public debt and economic growth. We analyze how the public debt to GDP ratio at a certain point in time is correlated with the GDP growth rate in the following period, where we consider a one-year time span, a three-years time interval and a five-years interval. Using panel data comprising seven developed countries from 1970-2012, we estimate a pooled regression model and a random effects model. We find strong evidence for a significantly negative relation between debt and growth. Further, for most specifications this relationship does not seem to be characterized by non-linearities.

References

Data Sources

IMF (2013): “International Financial Statistics,” via StatistikNetz.de, DSI Data Service and Information.

OECD Databases (2013): “Economic Outlook Statistics and Projections” also “Fiscal Positions and Business Cylcles (historical ed.),” via StatistikNetz.de, DSI Data Service and Information.

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Published

09-07-2015

How to Cite

Fincke, B., & Greiner, A. (2015). On the relation between public debt and economic growth: an empirical investigation. Economics and Business Letters, 4(4), 137–150. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.4.4.2015.137-150

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 4 (2015): December - Special Issue Debt and Sustainability

Section

Special Section

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