A new method for quantification of qualitative expectations

Authors

  • Joachim Zuckarelli

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.4.3.2015.123-128

Abstract

For many research purposes it is necessary to quantify qualitative inflation or other expectations from consumer or business surveys. The standard quantification method that is widely referred to in the literature for qualitative inflation expectations is the Carlson-Parkin method, with various extensions. This study proposes a novel quantification method that connects the survey respondents’ inflation experience with forward looking information. The article outlines the new approach and applies it exemplarily to qualitative inflation survey data for the Euro area and the United States.

References

Anderson, O. (1952). The business test of the IFO Institute for Economic Research, Munich, and its theoretical model. Review of the International Statistical Institute, 20.

Carlson, J. A. and Parkin, M. (1975). Infation expectations. Economica, 42:123-138.

Henzel, S. and Wollmershäauser, T. (2005). Quantifying Inflation expectations with the Carlson-Parkin method: A survey-based determination of the just noticeable difference. Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2:321-352.

Pesaran, M. (1984). Expectations formation and macroeconomic modelling. In: Malgrange, P. and Muet, P., editors, Contemporary macroeconomic modelling, pages 27-55. Blackwell, Oxford.

Theil, H. (1952). On the shape of economic microvariables and the Munich Business Test. Révue de l'Institut International de Statistique, 20:105-120.

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Published

10-11-2015

How to Cite

Zuckarelli, J. (2015). A new method for quantification of qualitative expectations. Economics and Business Letters, 4(3), 123–128. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.4.3.2015.123-128

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 3 (2015): September - Special Issue Energy demand forecasting

Section

Articles

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