Sustainability of current account balances in small states

Authors

  • Jeetendra Khadan Inter-American Development Bank
  • Amrita Deonarine Parliament of Trinidad and Tobago, Independent Senator

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.9.1.2020.14-20

Abstract

This article applies the inter-temporal budget constraint framework and panel cointegration tests to examine the sustainability of current account deficits in 17 small states over the period 1995-2016. The findings show the existence of cointegration between real exports and real imports, but with the magnitude of the long-run coefficient being less than one, which support a “weak” form of current account sustainability in small states.

Author Biographies

Jeetendra Khadan, Inter-American Development Bank

Senior Economist, Caribbean Department

Amrita Deonarine, Parliament of Trinidad and Tobago, Independent Senator

Parliament of Trinidad and Tobago, Independent Senator

References

Banerjee, A., Marcellino, M. and Osbat, C. (2004). ‘Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macro-economic data’, Econometrics Journal, Vol. 7, pp. 322–340.

Banerjee, A., Marcellino, M. and Osbat, C. (2005). ‘Testing for PPP: should we use panel methods?’, Empirical Economics, Vol. 30, pp. 77–91.

Banerjee, Anindya and Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre (2017). Testing for Panel Cointegration Using Common Correlated Effects Estimators, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 38, issue 4, p. 610-636.

De Hoyos, Rafael and Sarafidis, Vasilis, (2006), Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models, Stata Journal, 6, issue 4, p. 482-496.

Ganioğlu Aytül (2013). Rapid Credit Growth and Current Account Deficit as the Leading Determinants of Financial Crises. Economics Discussion Papers, No 2013-35, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Hakkio, C. S., Rush, M. (1991), “Is the Budget Deficit ‘Too Large’?” Economic Inquiry, 39 (July), pp. 429-445.

Hausman, Jerry, (1978), Specification Tests in Econometrics, Econometrica, 46, issue 6, p. 1251-71.

Hsiao Cheng & M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2012. "Diagnostic Tests of Cross‐section Independence for Limited Dependent Variable Panel Data Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 253-277.

Hurlin, Christophe and Valérie Mignon (2007), Second Generation Panel Unit Root Tests, Working Papers, HAL.

Husted, S. (1992), “The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis.” The Review of Economics & Statistics, pp. 159-166.

Kao, C. (1999), “Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data,” Journal of Econometrics 90: 1–44.

Lyhagen, J. (2000). “Why Not Use Standard Panel Unit Root Test for Testing PPP”, Stockholm School of Economics Working Paper No 413.

Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, and Assaf Razin (1996), Current Account Sustainability, Princeton Studies in International Finance no. 81, October.

O’Connell, P.G.J. (1998) “The Overvaluation of Purchasing Power Parity” Journal of International Economics 44, 1-19.

Pedroni, P. (1999) “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61, 653–670.

Pedroni, P. (2004) “Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis” Econometric Theory 20, 597–625.

Pesaran, H., Y. Shin and R. Smith (1999), “Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 94: 621–34.

Pesaran, M, Shin, Yongcheol and Smith, Ronald, (1997), Pooled Estimation of Long-run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

Pesaran, M. H. (2004) “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

Pesaran, M. H., and Smith, R. P. (1995), "Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Journal of Econometrics, 68, 79-113.

Phillips, P.C.B and D. Sul (2003) “Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing under Cross Section Dependence” The Econometrics Journal 6, 217-259.

Westerlund, J. (2007) “Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69, 709-748.

Downloads

Published

29-01-2020

How to Cite

Khadan, J., & Deonarine, A. (2020). Sustainability of current account balances in small states. Economics and Business Letters, 9(1), 14–20. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.9.1.2020.14-20

Issue

Section

Articles