Eurozone inflation: fresh projections from global factors

Authors

  • Nicholas Apergis University of Piraeus

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.13.1.2024.39-47

Keywords:

inflation, global supply, global demand, eurozone countries

Abstract

This study identifies the contributions of global factors in determining eurozone inflation. The analysis makes use of an augmented Phillips curve model of inflation, as well as panel data estimates. The findings document the importance of such factors in forecasting inflation, thus, confirming the substantial role of external factors in eurozone inflation. The findings survived certain model specifications. Therefore, monetary, and fiscal policymakers should explicitly consider both domestic and global conditions to anchor inflation expectations in forming specific strategies for taming inflation expectations.

References

Arellano, M., and Bover, O. (1995) Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.

Bala, U., and Chin, L. (2018) Asymmetric impacts of oil price on inflation: an empirical study of African OPEC member countries, Energies, 11(11), 1-21.

Banbura, M., and Bobeica, E. (2023) Does the Phillips Curve help to forecast euro area inflation? International Journal of Forecasting, 39(1), 364-390.

Banbura, M., and Mirza, H. (2013) Forecasting euro area inflation with the Phillips Curve, Mimeo manuscript, European Central Bank.

Banbura, M., Giannone, D., and Reichlin, L. (2010) Large Bayesian vector auto regressions, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25(1), 71-92.

Bianchi, F., and Civelli, A. (2015) Globalization and inflation: evidence from a time-varying VAR, Review of Economic Dynamics, 18(2), 406-433.

Cardoso, C.A., and Vieira, F.V. (2016) Inflation and exchange rates: a panel data analysis, Nova Economia, 26(3), 855-886.

Ciccarelli, M., and Mojon, B. (2010) Global inflation, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(3), 524-535.

Deniz, P., Tekce, M., and Yilmaz, A. (2016) Investigating the determinants of inflation: a panel data analysis, International Journal of Financial Research, 7(2), 233-246.

Fischer, B., Lenza, M., Pill, H., and Reichlin, L. (2009) Monetary analysis and monetary policy in the euro area 1999-2006, Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(7), 1138-1164.

Forbes, K. (2019) Has globalization changed the inflation process? BIS Working Paper, No. 791.

Kamber, G., and Wong, B. (2020) Global factors and trend inflation, Journal of International Economics, 122(C), 103265.

Mohanty, M.S., and Klau, M. (2001) What determines inflation in emerging market economies? In Bank for International Settlements (Ed.) Modelling Aspects of the Inflation Process and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Emerging Market Countries, 8, 1-38.

Sek, S.K., Teo, X.Q., and Wong, Y.N. (2015) A comparative study on the effects of oil price changes on inflation, Procedia Economics and Finance, 26(4), 630-636.

Downloads

Published

20-01-2024

How to Cite

Apergis, N. (2024). Eurozone inflation: fresh projections from global factors. Economics and Business Letters, 13(1), 39–47. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.13.1.2024.39-47

Issue

Section

Articles