Manipulación del contenido en el fenómeno de ensombrecimiento en juicios de contingencia

Abstract

Manipulation of the content in the overshadowing in contingency judgments. This article studies the process of overshadowing and the predictions realized by the models of contingency judgments. In two different experiments, subjects were provided with four cues, to which they had to respond in one of two possible outcomes. The two experiments differed with respect to the content of their cues and outcomes: symptoms and diseases in the first experiment, letters and numbers in the second one. The results show that content does not seem to affect the subjects' judgment. However, the results do differ with respect to the contingencies established between the cues and the subjects' outcomes. Of all the models studied, only three proved to acceptably fit the empirical data: the Bayes' rule, the Delta O, and the Associative Model.