Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Evidence from Serbia

Autores/as

  • Safet Kurtović University of Travnik

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.8.1.2019.7-16

Resumen

In this paper we estimated the degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into aggregate import prices in Serbia. ERPT was determined by application of single equation, cointegration approach (ARDL model), error correction term (ECM) and VAR Granger Causality tests. We based our research on data from 2008Q1 to 2014Q4. The results of our research show partial pass-through in the short run; in the long run pass-through was not observed. In addition to that, we found that appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) led to significant pass-through asymmetry in the short run.

Biografía del autor/a

Safet Kurtović, University of Travnik

Faculty of Management and Business Economics

Citas

Alvarez, R., Jaramillo, P. and Selaive, J. (2014) Is the Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices Declining?: Evidence from Chile, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48:100-116.

Aron, J., Macdonald, R. and Muellbauer, J. (2014) Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings, The Journal of Development Studies, 50: 101-143. doi: 10.1080/00220388.2013.847180

Bailliu, J. and Fujii, E. (2004) Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation, Staff Working Paper No. 2004-21, Bank of Canada.

Barhoumi, K. (2006) Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation, Economic Modelling, 23: 926-951. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.006

Ben Cheikh, N. and Rault, C. (2016) Recent Estimates of Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area, Review of World Economics, 152: 69-105. doi: 10.1007/s10290-015-0233-x

Ben Cheikh, N. and Rault, C. (2017) Investigating First-Stage Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Sectoral and Macro Evidence from Euro Area Countries, IZA Discussion Paper No. 10555, Bonn.

Brun-Aguerre, R., Fuertes, A. M. and Phylaktis, K. (2012) Exchange rate pass-through into import prices revisited: What drives it?, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31: 818-844. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.01.009

Brun-Aguerre, R., Fuertes, A. M. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2017) Heads I win; tails you lose: asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through into import prices, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 180: 587–612. doi: 10.1111/rssa.12213

Bussière, M. (2013) Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices the Role of Non-Linearities and Asymmetries, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75: 731–758. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2012.00711.x

Bussière, M., Chiaie, S. D. and Peltonen, T. (2014) Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy: the role of emerging market economies, IMF Economic Review, 62: 146–178.

Byrne, P. J., Chavali, A. S. and Kontonikas, A. (2010) Exchange Rate Pass Through To Import Prices: Panel Evidence From Emerging Market Economies, SIRE Discussion Papers No. 2010-46, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

Campa, J. and Goldberg, L. S. (2002) Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?, Working Paper No. 8934, Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Campa, J., Goldberg, L. S. and González-Mínguez, J. M. (2005) Exchange-Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area, Working Paper No. 11632, Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Ca’Zorzi, M., Hahn, E. and Sánchez, M. (2007) Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Emerging Markets, Working Paper Series No. 739, European Central Bank.

Cerro, A. M. and Rodriguez, A. A. (2010) The Effect of Crime on the Job Market: An ARDL approach to Argentina, MPRA Paper No. 44457.

Goldberg, P. K. and Knetter, M. M. (1997) Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?, Journal of Economic Literature, 35(3): 1243-1272.

Dabusinskas, A. (2003) Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Estonian Prices, Working Papers of Eesti Pank No. 10.

De Bandt, O., Banerjee, A. and Koźluk, T. (2008) Measuring Long-Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2: 1–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2008-6

Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431. doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

Dornbusch, R. (1987) Exchange Rates and Prices, American Economic Review, 77: 93–106.

Goldfajn, I. and Werlang, S. (2000) The Pass-Through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study, Working Paper No. 5, Banco Central de Brasil.

Jabara, C. L. (2009) How Do Exchange Rates Affect Import Prices? Recent Economic, Working paper No. ID-21, Washington.

Khundrakpam, J. K. (2007) Economic reforms and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in India, BIS Working Papers No 225, Bank for International Settlements.

Knetter, M. M. (1994) Is export price adjustment asymmetric? Evaluating the market share and marketing bottlenecks hypotheses, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13: 55–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(94)90024-8

Kurtovic, S., Siljković, B., Denić, N., Petković, D., Mladenović, S. S. and Milovančević, I. (2018) Exchange rate pass-through and Southeast European economies, Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 3: 400-409. DOI 10.1016/j.physa.2018.03.005

Kurtović S., Halili, B. and Maxhuni, N. (2017) Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia and Her Trading Partners, Review of Economics/Jahrbuch fur Wirtschaftswissenschaften, 68(3): 181-204. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2017-0012

Kurtović S., Halili, B. and Maxhuni, N. (2017a) Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia: Is There a J-Curve Effect?, PSL Quarterly Review 70(280): 185-210. http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/13849/pdf_11 (Accessed 29 Septembre 2017).

Lopez-Villavicencio, A. and Mignon, V. (2017) Explaining exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Does globalization matter?. http://crief.labo.univ-poitiers.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/127/2017/04/Lopez_papier.pdf (Accessed December 12, 2017).

Marazzi, M. and Sheets, N. (2007) Declining Exchange Rate Pass-Through to U.S. Import Prices: The Potential Role of Global Factors, Journal of International Money and Finance, 26: 924-947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2006.12.003

María-Dolores, R. (2010) Exchange rate pass-through in New Member States and candidate countries of the EU, International Review of Economics and Finance, 19, 23–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2009.02.009

McCarthy, J. (2007) Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies, Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, 33: 511-537.

Menon, J. (1995) Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Journal of Economics Surveys, 9: 197–231. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.1995.tb00114.x

Özyur, S. (2016) Has the exchange rate pass through recently declined in the euro area?, Working Paper Series No. 1955, European Central Bank. Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (1999).Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Long-Run Relationships, Discussion Paper Series No. 46. University of Edinburgh.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001) Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1998) Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression, Biometrika 75: 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335

Pollard, P. S. and Coughlin, C. C. (2004) Series Size Matters: Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through At The Industry Level, Working Paper 2003-029C, St. Louis: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Velickovski, I. and Pugh, G. (2011) Constraints on exchange rate flexibility in transition economies: a meta-regression analysis of exchange rate pass-through, Journal Applied Economics, 43: 4111-4125. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2010.485927

Webber, A. G. (2000) Newton’s Gravity Law and import prices in the Asia Pacific, Japan and the World Economy, 12: 71-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0922-1425(99)00029-8

Descargas

Publicado

2019-02-25

Cómo citar

Kurtović, S. (2019). Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Evidence from Serbia. Economics and Business Letters, 8(1), 7–16. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.8.1.2019.7-16

Número

Sección

Artículos