Shape-shift contagion in emerging markets equities: evidence from frequency- and time-domain analysis

Authors

  • Peterson Owusu Junior Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6253-5770
  • Imhotep Alagidede Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand
  • George Tweneboah Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.9.3.2020.146-156

Abstract

We explore interdependence and contagion in the top 9 emerging markets and the US equities using a novel time-varying GLD-based Baruník & Křehlík (2018) (BK18) spillover technique. The GLD accounts for the extreme returns while the BK18 capture the nonlinear, nonstationary, asymmetric, and time-dependent comovements in higher moments. We find dominance of some emerging markets instead of the US in the frequency-dependent spillovers. We also establish shape shift-contagion in emerging markets equities in the short-term. Our results shed new light on the sources of connectedness and contagion through the shape parameters of equity returns.

Author Biographies

Peterson Owusu Junior, Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand

Wits Business School. PhD Candidate.

Imhotep Alagidede, Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand

Wits Business School. Professor of Finance.

References

Bessembinder, H. (2018). Do stocks outperform Treasury bills? Journal of Financial Economics, 129(3), 440–457.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.06.004

Boubaker, S., Jouini, J., & Lahiani, A. (2016). Financial contagion between the US and selected developed and emerging countries: The case of the subprime crisis. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 61, 14–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2015.11.001

Chan, J. C. C., Fry-McKibbin, R. A., & Hsiao, C. Y.-L. (2019). A regime switching skew-normal model of contagion. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 23(1). https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2017-0001

Diebold, F. X., & Yilmaz, K. (2009). Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets. The Economic Journal, 119(534), 158–171. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02208.x

Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: Measuring stock market comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223–2261.

Freimer, M., Kollia, G., Mudholkar, G. S., & Lin, C. T. (1988). A study of the generalized tukey lambda family. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 17(10), 3547–3567.

Fry-McKibbin, R., Hsiao, C., & Martin, V. L. (2017). Joint Tests of Contagion with Applications to Financial Crises (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. ID 2941178). Retrieved from Social Science Research Network website: https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2941178

Karian, Z. A., & Dudewicz, E. J. (2016). Handbook of fitting statistical distributions with R. Florida, USA: CRC Press.

Martellini, L., & Ziemann, V. (2010). Improved Estimates of Higher-Order Comoments and Implications for Portfolio Selection. The Review of Financial Studies, 23(4), 1467–1502. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhp099

Martin, R. (2011). The local geographies of the financial crisis: From the housing bubble to economic recession and beyond. Journal of Economic Geography, 11(4), 587–618. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbq024

Meinusch, A. (2017). When the Fed sneezes: Spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to emerging markets (Working Paper No. 30–2017). Retrieved from Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics website: https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/174326

Mollah, S., Quoreshi, A. M. M. S., & Zafirov, G. (2016). Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 41, 151–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.12.010

Müller, P., & Wagner, J. (2018). How do the consideration of non-normal return distributions and of higher moments influence the optimal asset allocation in Swiss pension funds? Zeitschrift Für Die Gesamte Versicherungswissenschaft, 1–15.

Müller, U. A., Dacorogna, M. M., Davé, R. D., Pictet, O. V., Olsen, R. B., & Ward, J. R. (1993). Fractals and intrinsic time: A challenge to econometricians. Unpublished Manuscript, Olsen & Associates, Zürich.

Pfaff, B. (2016). Financial risk modelling and portfolio optimization with R. West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons.

Ramberg, J. S., & Schmeiser, B. W. (1974). An approximate method for generating asymmetric random variables. Communications of the ACM, 17(2), 78–82.

Saiti, B., Bacha, O. I., & Masih, M. (2016). Testing the conventional and Islamic financial market contagion: Evidence from wavelet analysis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(8), 1832–1849.

Shahzad, S. J. H., Nor, S. M., Kumar, R. R., & Mensi, W. (2017).

Interdependence and contagion among industry-level US credit markets: An application of wavelet and VMD based copula approaches. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 466, 310–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2016.09.008

Su, S. (2007). Numerical maximum log likelihood estimation for generalized lambda distributions. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51(8), 3983–3998.

Wang, G.-J., Xie, C., Lin, M., & Stanley, H. E. (2017). Stock market contagion during the global financial crisis: A multiscale approach. Finance Research Letters, 22, 163–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2016.12.025

Yilmaz, K. (2010). Return and volatility spillovers among the East Asian equity markets. Journal of Asian Economics, 21(3), 304–313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2009.09.001

Downloads

Published

13-12-2020

How to Cite

Owusu Junior, P., Alagidede, I., & Tweneboah, G. (2020). Shape-shift contagion in emerging markets equities: evidence from frequency- and time-domain analysis. Economics and Business Letters, 9(3), 146–156. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.9.3.2020.146-156