Predictive ability of high school grades on performance at the national university selection test: The Chilean case

Abstract

The aim of this research is to quantify the predictive ability of high school grades (NEM) in relation to score obtained by chilean students in the national university selection test (PSU). It implies a revision of the average scores achieved by students coming from every High School in the country, by specific area, rendered in the 2012 national university selection test accordingly to types of teaching and school. It also includes a correlation matrix (both bivariate and partial) to determine a relation between each test output and school performance (NEM). Main findings are: The educational system in Chile segregates and sets different levels of achievement according to types of school and students¿ social capital. It also provides evidence of the existence of poor internal evaluation systems, with little validity and reliability levels, that reflect diverging policies for school grading and academic demand. In municipal high schools or schools that attend to students at high social and economic risk, their internal evaluation systems show a reduced predictive capacity for PSU scores.